MODERATE — CORROBORATION PENDING
Best guess: somewhere within 221 km of Sinaloa corridor, MX. Confidence rises when several independent sources say the same thing.
What raises or lowers it
- SIGINT handset intercept in cell cluster+26
- HUMINT source corroboration (2+ assets)+22
- Financial trail / hawala node activity+14
- Satellite imagery pattern-of-life match+16
- Active Interpol notice & border flag+8
- Social-graph proximity of known associates+12
- Deception / decoy indicators detected-18
- Reporting older than 72 hours-10
Advisory: probabilistic estimate synthesised from public notices. Not a live location feed and not evidence.